Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.096093 0.107477 0.119290 0.132434 0.146619 0.161437 0.178055
2024-10-20 0.076229 0.092699 0.110814 0.132082 0.156226 0.182648 0.213608
2024-10-27 0.062623 0.082200 0.104883 0.132775 0.165804 0.203333 0.248849
2024-11-03 0.057104 0.079877 0.107409 0.142527 0.185487 0.235699 0.298158
2024-11-10 0.048594 0.072544 0.102764 0.142716 0.193134 0.253640 0.330675
2024-11-17 0.042650 0.067591 0.100300 0.144932 0.202782 0.273775 0.365928
2024-11-24 0.037135 0.062436 0.096888 0.145330 0.209704 0.290337 0.396851
2024-12-01 0.035192 0.061997 0.099582 0.153653 0.226861 0.319960 0.444524
2024-12-08 0.033475 0.061625 0.102185 0.161772 0.243821 0.349581 0.492695
2024-12-15 0.029911 0.057996 0.099767 0.162621 0.250830 0.366257 0.524415
2024-12-22 0.025744 0.052908 0.094749 0.159364 0.251901 0.374926 0.545709
2024-12-29 0.024360 0.052209 0.096190 0.165350 0.265793 0.400782 0.589831
2025-01-05 0.022295 0.050292 0.095851 0.169049 0.277108 0.424164 0.632213
2025-01-12 0.020177 0.048055 0.094869 0.171763 0.287177 0.446234 0.673549
2025-01-19 0.018178 0.045781 0.093629 0.173966 0.296527 0.467513 0.714268
2025-01-26 0.018212 0.047388 0.098898 0.186469 0.321298 0.510690 0.785489
2025-02-02 0.016204 0.044701 0.096669 0.186965 0.328203 0.528935 0.822885
2025-02-09 0.014778 0.042992 0.095964 0.189784 0.338570 0.552173 0.867453
2025-02-16 0.013179 0.040675 0.093965 0.190319 0.345376 0.570365 0.905210
2025-02-23 0.013008 0.041503 0.097709 0.200486 0.367194 0.610479 0.974157
2025-03-02 0.012803 0.042214 0.101241 0.210367 0.388737 0.650479 1.043413
2025-03-09 0.011568 0.040308 0.099668 0.211402 0.396325 0.670109 1.083939
2025-03-16 0.009920 0.037114 0.095351 0.207448 0.395826 0.677764 1.107456